Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Back in the realm

Real passions and pastimes need no time from your over scheduled, overburdened (However, I myself am jobless literally, in my life).

My line of thought has never been explanatory; never been explicable by my self or by anyone, somehow I feel this is because of all reasons that are real and more so because of my insane flow of thought. So, as I sit down to write this feeling really confused if it does makes sense to anyone reading this, I still want to continue writing this post.
'Why has India kept out of the recession?', is a question that I assigned my mind of conjuring up an answer for. (That to in spite of the drought in India - which I plan to reason out in another post).
For this, I took The US of A into the frame as I compared our Dear India.And here are the reasons I came up with after a quick bout of mental exertion:
Reason 1: I think developed countries like the US work on a Macroeconomic model, whereas India being a developing country (Here again with regards to the term developing country, I really think we need to have some stricter indicators to determine if a country is truly developing over the indicators that currently prevail because I consider India may still be way down at the bottom when it comes to using a fair and just indexing scheme for judging the development of the whole country) works on a more microeconomic scale.However, I must also not forget to state that the Micro-Economies that exists in the India's economic set up don't really have the synergy that can work in India's favour and leave it with a good chance of being at the top of the list of all developing nations in the world. So the real reason then that has worked in India's favour is the opportunistic climate that the Micro-Economic model has spurred, where some robust set of income earners have been the highlight and have tied up all the lose ends of the Micro-Economic model as well. These small but significant set of income earners, paint a rosy picture of a state of well being. And this rosy picture has been conveniently attributed to that of the whole of India and its masses. Also, another reason for this is the statistical diversity across the entire spectrum of the financial divides (based on the incomes), because of which the number of income earners have always seemed substantial when taking the entire population of a country such as India.

Reason 2: I think although the consumers of US of A when segregated as domestic and international would be almost equal, the capacity of the American population to consume cannot be shed aside, whereas in India this domestic consumption of goods and services both cannot be compared to that of the USA. So, when an general downturn and finally a recession occurred in the US, the country lost out on the most reliable consumer (it's own consumers) who had been its most strongest and also a prime exponent responsible for engulfing the huge share of demand for all goods and services both, since the time the world stepped on this techno-economic era. (I shall again come back to this point when discussing my 3rd reason) In India however, the last decade of steady inflow in terms of the export of services combined with a demand that has forever been much higher than the supply (again due to the statistical diversity across the entire spectrum of the financial divides) has not only pushed up the consumption of goods steadily domestically but also has probably always exceed that amount in value of the goods and services that that have been exported to the foreign markets and this has provided a cushion for the Indian economy in terms of the scope of growth across its various industrial and service sectors.

Reason 3: The US of A has also been able to create a faulty growth curve that has also been not based on the quality of goods consumed (don't get me wrong as I am trying to point out at the what may have been essential and what may have been a thing of luxury) and hence even as this shift was seen as the next level of growth of the American economy the Ipod's and the Mortgages alike to name a few brought the ultimate downfall of the century! Ipod's not essential and mortgages also unessential when one can't afford them (mind you maybe affordable mortgages wouldn't have got you to such an wrong scenario I assume and I hope you can reason with that ;)). Whereas, India the economic division of the masses albeit has consumed foreign luxury items it has also been able to consume domestically produced essential items as well as been able to dish out the essential services of countries like the US of A and stayed away from the techno-economic boom (although you might not concur with me here, I would like to say only a service like Google, Ebay, Facebook or Twitter making a hell lot of money can easily overpowered by a more innovative idea within a very short span of time and hence proving to be not so reliable to bet your countries Economy or its recovery on).

Now for an conclusion, I think the India micro-economic set up is going to take a very long time to overhaul and nor will it happen soon I believe and also with 1/6 th of the world's population every company would only want to operate domestically from end-to-end in India except those of extremely luxurious services and goods. So I guess Indians just need a little innovation and more socio-economic reforms before we set out on the ship of Economic growth and zoom on! And with regards to our Chinese brothers who will be the super power that has never been before all the best, because if there is no serious natural calamity, disease or an Ice Age they would be there and would have done it!

Although, most of my writing would be over worded and the sentences read very long, I still will be astounded if you do reach this line to read this!

3 comments:

Absolutely Lost said...

I gave up at Reason 1. I didn't have the guts to read such big paragraphs to understand what the point was :P

So you are Slooze :P

Mudit said...

wtf

Absolutely Lost said...

I see you have changed the template but not made any additions